Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tracking an E. Atlantic tropical wave

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.

Garrett Bedenbaugh will take over “Talking the Tropics” through at least Sun., Aug. 6th. Garrett’s wealth of experience in - & level headed approach to - forecasting the tropics will keep you updated as we move into the third month of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The Caribbean: tropical wave - ‘95-L’ is producing disorganized showers & t’storms. As expected, strong wind shear has torn apart this wave & no development is expected as the wave continue swiftly moving west. There will be a few gusty squalls across some of the Caribbean Islands through the end of this week.

There is a weak surface trough in tandem with an “upper tropospheric trough” (TUTT) continues to produce numerous yet disorganized heavy showers & t’storms over the Bahamas extending northeast for several hundred miles. This trough will move W/NW producing heavy rain & gusty winds on its east side but no true tropical development is expected.

Lastly... A distant tropical wave is coming off the coast of Africa & will move W/NW through the upcoming weekend. Forecast models have varying solutions for this wave in the long term but overall conditions appear to be only marginal for some slow development. The wave will remain over the open Atlantic through at least the upcoming weekend.

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Emily” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.